The biggest beneficiary of the Olkalou by-election may not have been the DCP, but President William Ruto. What appeared to be a humiliating defeat for UDA could have served a much bigger political purpose: giving Rigathi Gachagua a victory big enough to inflate his political ego and destabilise the opposition from within.
On July 17, DCP candidate Sammy Waweru secured 35,440 votes against UDA’s 5,450. The outcome was a decisive victory for Gachagua’s camp. However, questions are emerging about whether the political consequences of that victory have worked in Ruto’s favour.
Ruto understands that his biggest obstacle to re-election in 2027 is a united opposition. A coalition bringing together Kalonzo Musyoka, Gachagua, Fred Matiang’i, Eugene Wamalwa and other political heavyweights would present a formidable challenge. The best strategy for State House, therefore, would be to weaken that coalition before it becomes an effective political force.
And Gachagua may have become an unlikely instrument in that strategy.
Before Olkalou, Gachagua appeared comfortable operating within the United Opposition, attending meetings and sharing platforms with other opposition leaders. His public messaging largely emphasised unity and collective political action.
But following the Olkalou victory, his political posture appeared to change. His increasingly assertive claims to leadership of the Mt Kenya region, coupled with demands for recognition within the opposition, have raised questions about whether personal political ambition is taking precedence over coalition building.
The growing disagreements over leadership, presidential candidacy and the distribution of political influence risk pushing key opposition figures away from the negotiating table.
This is precisely the kind of political environment that would benefit Ruto.
There is no established evidence that Ruto deliberately engineered the Olkalou outcome or financially backed Gachagua’s political ambitions. However, the political interpretation is worth examining: a triumphant Gachagua who believes he commands Mt Kenya and deserves a leading position in the opposition could become more difficult to negotiate with.
By allowing Gachagua to enjoy the political glory of Olkalou, Ruto may have gained something more valuable than a by-election victory: an opposition increasingly consumed by internal rivalries.
Ultimately, Gachagua must decide whether he wants to lead a united opposition capable of removing Ruto from power or become the centre of a political movement whose divisions could hand the President another five years at State House.
In politics, sometimes your opponent’s biggest victory can become your greatest advantage.
